Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
### Dane
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 10 2020 | 1060 | 19290 | 42 | 6 | 259 | 292 |
| September 11 2020 | 1098 | 19468 | 42 | 6 | 273 | 318 |
| September 12 2020 | 1171 | 19766 | 42 | 6 | 333 | 381 |
| September 13 2020 | 1232 | 20082 | 43 | 6 | 372 | 431 |
| September 14 2020 | 1259 | 20176 | 43 | 6 | 377 | 458 |
| September 15 2020 | 1286 | 20231 | 43 | 6 | 381 | 461 |
| September 16 2020 | 1336 | 20533 | 45 | 6 | 395 | 498 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.3% | 5 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 8.0 | 20.3% | 80 | 0.59% | 108 | 0.79% |
| 20-29 | 31 | 27.0 | 62% | 245 | 1.17% | 306 | 1.46% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 2.0 | 5.1% | 20 | 0.15% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.3 | 3.3% | 13 | 0.12% | 17 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.3 | 3% | 12 | 0.1% | 13 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.3 | 4.1% | 16 | 0.14% | 20 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.6 | 1% | 4 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 50 | 42.7 | 100% | 395 | 0.38% | 498 | 0.48% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 10 2020 | 395 | 12747 | 17 | 0 | 48 | 72 |
| September 11 2020 | 403 | 12847 | 17 | 0 | 53 | 72 |
| September 12 2020 | 409 | 12908 | 17 | 0 | 55 | 67 |
| September 13 2020 | 418 | 12993 | 17 | 0 | 54 | 73 |
| September 14 2020 | 420 | 13036 | 17 | 0 | 49 | 73 |
| September 15 2020 | 423 | 13084 | 17 | 0 | 47 | 73 |
| September 16 2020 | 434 | 13161 | 17 | 0 | 56 | 80 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 10 2020 | 394 | 7850 | 18 | 4 | 24 | 29 |
| September 11 2020 | 394 | 7922 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 25 |
| September 12 2020 | 395 | 7929 | 18 | 4 | 20 | 25 |
| September 13 2020 | 396 | 7931 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 26 |
| September 14 2020 | 398 | 8017 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 28 |
| September 15 2020 | 401 | 8142 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 29 |
| September 16 2020 | 403 | 8206 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 28 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 10 2020 | 1445 | 22189 | 39 | 2 | 263 | 336 |
| September 11 2020 | 1523 | 22407 | 39 | 2 | 321 | 390 |
| September 12 2020 | 1625 | 22558 | 39 | 2 | 417 | 469 |
| September 13 2020 | 1754 | 22560 | 39 | 2 | 515 | 577 |
| September 14 2020 | 1799 | 22561 | 40 | 2 | 513 | 617 |
| September 15 2020 | 1889 | 22605 | 41 | 2 | 577 | 687 |
| September 16 2020 | 2011 | 23463 | 41 | 2 | 685 | 803 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 50 | 34.7 | 37.5% | 257 | 1.55% | 279 | 1.69% |
| 20-29 | 54 | 44.0 | 47.3% | 324 | 1.52% | 388 | 1.82% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.6 | 3.1% | 21 | 0.15% | 29 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.3 | 3.9% | 27 | 0.2% | 34 | 0.25% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2.4 | 2.8% | 19 | 0.13% | 27 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 1.9 | 2.6% | 18 | 0.13% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 70+ | 5 | 2.3 | 2.3% | 16 | 0.12% | 21 | 0.16% |
| All ages | 122 | 91.6 | 100% | 685 | 0.58% | 803 | 0.68% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 10 2020 | 6971 | 172451 | 340 | 41 | 1542 | 1677 |
| September 11 2020 | 7254 | 172750 | 343 | 41 | 1734 | 1924 |
| September 12 2020 | 7389 | 173348 | 343 | 41 | 1825 | 2002 |
| September 13 2020 | 7622 | 174239 | 344 | 41 | 1983 | 2196 |
| September 14 2020 | 7846 | 174544 | 345 | 41 | 2047 | 2417 |
| September 15 2020 | 7896 | 175620 | 346 | 41 | 1935 | 2376 |
| September 16 2020 | 7984 | 176565 | 347 | 41 | 1866 | 2420 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.3 | 1% | 18 | 0.03% | 28 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 34 | 122.1 | 58.4% | 1089 | 1.53% | 1385 | 1.95% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 64.0 | 29.4% | 548 | 0.53% | 716 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 8.7 | 4.2% | 79 | 0.1% | 105 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 6.9 | 2.7% | 50 | 0.08% | 68 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 5.0 | 2.3% | 42 | 0.06% | 57 | 0.09% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.2% | 23 | 0.04% | 36 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.0 | 0.9% | 17 | 0.03% | 25 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 88 | 213.6 | 100% | 1866 | 0.34% | 2420 | 0.44% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 10 2020 | 84881 | 1245448 | 6222 | 1193 | 9278 | 11743 |
| September 11 2020 | 86250 | 1254034 | 6263 | 1197 | 9666 | 12269 |
| September 12 2020 | 87603 | 1264305 | 6309 | 1209 | 10474 | 12803 |
| September 13 2020 | 89185 | 1270458 | 6332 | 1210 | 11329 | 13848 |
| September 14 2020 | 89956 | 1273607 | 6350 | 1210 | 10602 | 14353 |
| September 15 2020 | 91304 | 1284525 | 6406 | 1220 | 11004 | 14720 |
| September 16 2020 | 92712 | 1295313 | 6454 | 1228 | 11519 | 15583 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 33 | 30.4 | 2.2% | 255 | 0.04% | 368 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 275 | 320.3 | 23.4% | 2692 | 0.36% | 3423 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 376 | 406.3 | 29.8% | 3427 | 0.45% | 4494 | 0.59% |
| 30-39 | 156 | 132.9 | 10.4% | 1200 | 0.16% | 1684 | 0.22% |
| 40-49 | 162 | 128.6 | 9.5% | 1093 | 0.16% | 1581 | 0.23% |
| 50-59 | 204 | 149.6 | 11.4% | 1314 | 0.16% | 1871 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 109 | 92.1 | 7.2% | 832 | 0.11% | 1169 | 0.15% |
| 70+ | 93 | 79.6 | 6.1% | 706 | 0.11% | 993 | 0.16% |
| All ages | 1408 | 1339.7 | 100% | 11519 | 0.2% | 15583 | 0.27% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.6 | 79.4 | 146.2 | 42.7 | 16.4 | 18% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.4 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 8.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.3% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67.9 | 168.6 | 182.3 | 91.6 | 22.3 | 31.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.3 | 194.9 | 68.9 | 213.6 | 82 | 22.9% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.8 | 45.2 | 59.4 | 1339.7 | 785.7 | 14.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 23 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-07 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1313"